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Member Profile: AceMan1 (1347 posts)

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Hello, I'm AceMan1 (report this user)
I am from India
I last logged in 47 minutes ago
I have been a member since 23 Jul 2012
I have added 1347 posts in trackitt forums
I added my last post on 18 Jan 2018
AceMan1's Immigration Cases
 
I-140 case: Approved in 66 days (108 days less than average)   (0 comments)
User: AceMan1 Nationality: India
Applicant Type:primaryService Center:Vermont
Category:EB3Priority Date:24 Feb 2011
Application Filed:05 May 2011USCIS Received Date:07 May 2011
USCIS Notice Date:USCIS Receipt Number:
I-140/485 Filing:non-concurrentProcessing Type:regular
RFE Received?:RFE Received Date:
Reason for RFE:RFE Replied Date:
Application Status:approvedApproval/Denial Date:10 Jul 2011
Total Processing Time:66 daysMost Recent LUD:
Days Elapsed:
Case Added to Tracker: 27 Sep 2017 Last Updated: 06 Oct 2017
Notes:
AceMan1's Posts
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Posted in I-485 Forum 39 minutes ago
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction


That's is a big unknown for people in Eb3-I with PDs after July 2007. We really don't know how many people are still waiting with an approved i140 for about a decade. I'm assuming about 20-30% of these must have ported to EB2 but it is still a waiting game until the time the dates open for filing AOS. I'm guessing due to the economic slowdown during 2008 and 2009, the numbers should be considerably less with PDs starting mid-2008 to the end of 2009 compared to the previous years,

My PD is Eb3-I Mar 2008.



Based on the numbers which got added to EB2 queue since May 2012 Pending inventory till October 2017 PD, I would expect the 70-80% of EB3 I from 2007- early 2010 would have already ported.

Last year we got a 20 month movement. If we get to Jan 1 2008 for FY 18 then we would have got another 14 month movement.

If that happens, I don't think it is unreasonable to expect another 20 odd month movement in 2019. However the depending factor is EB3-ROW filing for the next 12-15 months.

So FY 2019 will be the year where EB/3 chugs along together with 10 year wait time.
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Posted in I-485 Forum 1 hour 24 minutes ago
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction

The EB2 I forward movement for FY 18 depends on lot of things.

How much SO it can get from top EB1, how much from vertical and how much unused from EB3.

If there is no SO of any sorts, EB2I will end at mid Feb 2009 by Sep 2018

If we get about 1000-2000 SO(likely), it will end at mid April 2009

If we get about 5000 SO (unlikely), it will end at 1st August 2009
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Posted in I-485 Forum 1 hour 40 minutes ago
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction


Thank you but Aceman was of the opinion that my prediction of September 2019 is the most pessimistic. Currently based on the slow movement of 2 weeks and no spillover, when would you expect to clear AUGUST 2009. Thanks once again



My apologies I misspoke earlier when I said you had 5000 before you. It is actually around 7000 as per the October PI.

So I will have to change my most pessimistic outlook to realistic for Aug 09 PD to clear before FY 2019.
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Posted in I-140 Forum 19 hours 2 minutes ago
Topic: H.R. 392, Fairness for High Skilled Immigrants Act

If you don’t want to talk fine. But know your numbers are wrong. I gave you the proof
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Posted in I-140 Forum 19 hours 4 minutes ago
Topic: Immigration Reform is coming soon

I don’t think you understand. This is a public forum and you can discuss things in hand. Did I abuse you once in any of my replies, but you felt the need to use unparliamentary terms.

I gave you the source, but you are only keen on nitpicking if it is USCIS or DOS which clearly indicates you want to make sound bites with no sense to reality
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Posted in I-140 Forum 19 hours 14 minutes ago
Topic: Immigration Reform is coming soon

What you are saying is what you see in mirror in real life. Once in a while I understand the urge of people like you to abuse everything around the world. When you are able to comprehend what zen is you will be enlightened
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Posted in I-140 Forum 19 hours 18 minutes ago
Topic: H.R. 392, Fairness for High Skilled Immigrants Act

You can wake up a person who is asleep, unfortunately you cannot if someone pretends to be ignorant you can’t help it. Dos maintains the list
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Posted in I-140 Forum 19 hours 23 minutes ago
Topic: Immigration Reform is coming soon

Propagating fake stories is also a crime against humanity. If you care I posted the source you asked for, but you appeared busy here.
So here is the source for you to validate my numbers
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal...
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Posted in I-140 Forum 19 hours 52 minutes ago
Topic: H.R. 392, Fairness for High Skilled Immigrants Act

source of my data is USCIS annual reports.
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal...
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Posted in I-140 Forum 23 hours 12 minutes ago
Topic: H.R. 392, Fairness for High Skilled Immigrants Act


Nothing like a statement backed up by a sound logic. May not come to be true but still solid logic. Thank you!





My logic is dependent on low filing for ROW in both EB2 and 3. The bill HR392 makes it independent of that.
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Posted in I-140 Forum 23 hours 35 minutes ago
Topic: H.R. 392, Fairness for High Skilled Immigrants Act



What is the basis of this timeline? I think without any reform, 2014 will not be getting GC till like late 2030s. Does your timeline assume a significant immigration reform from now till 2024?



The biggest factor for the timeline delay was 195K H1's from 1999-2003 and the last effects of those will be in 2009 PD for both EB2 and EB3.

The economy was down from 2008-2011 which would have less number of filers for that season. EB3 -I is in the cusp of breaking 2007 July and most of the people there from 2007-2011 would have already ported. Again this is only a logical assumption based on the way EB2 numbers for the same period increased from 2012 March - Till date.
With the aggression of current admin very less people from ROW is applying, which in turn is helping backlogged people.

So next financial year EB3 I is expected to be having same time lines as EB2 I or even surpass it. So from the year 2020 I am expecting EB2 I going forward at about 8-9 years delay and Eb3 I at 8-10 years delay. Hence I stated 2014 would be current by 2024 if there is no change in the current status quo.

Again this is only my view point and it may be different from others view.
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Posted in I-140 Forum 23 hours 50 minutes ago
Topic: H.R. 392, Fairness for High Skilled Immigrants Act

If this bill passes this FY, you can expect to be greened with 3-4 years.
Without this bill it is going to be around 2023-24
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Posted in I-140 Forum on 17 Jan 2018
Topic: H.R. 392, Fairness for High Skilled Immigrants Act



Just accept it for what it is -- call it a loophole, a scam or whatever-- the basic point is why should EB1C get his/her GC faster if he has same qualifications as EB2/3 and doing the same job ?? EB2/3 is only 2800 GCs each whereas EB1C India alone consumes 40,000 GCs each year. You think there is any chance for EB2/3 to progress without exposing EB1C scam ??



2012 - EB1 India 9,506, EB2 India 19726, EB3 - 2804
2013 - EB1 India 9,640, EB2 India 17193, EB3 - 7816
2014 - EB1 India 12978, EB2 India 23527, EB3 - 3526
2015 - EB1 India 12253, EB2 India 7235, EB3 - 7003
2016 - EB1 India 10985, EB2 India 3930, EB3 - 4617

So for 5 years EB1 India got 55362, EB2 India got 71611, EB3 India got 25766. The minimum quota for each category is 14020 for the same period (2804 * 5).

So your assumption of only 2800 for EB2/3 is wrong, same with your statement 40000 GC's each year when the actual USCIS numbers show about 11K per year over the last 5.
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 17 Jan 2018
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction


Yes. in the worst case by March 2018.



I think otherwise based on the high numbers for Eb1 and Eb2. Eb3 is always a step child
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 17 Jan 2018
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction

21 months would be most pessimistic scenario in my opinion. Real time filers for Eb1 and Eb2 row if low for next 1 year might reduce your wait time. However please note this is only a prediction and You are the best judge for your career decisions.
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 17 Jan 2018
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction


I am literally 4 weeks away. But holding no horses.



Let us hope that Eb2 I moves forward at least 2 weeks for next 2-3 bulletins. It is absolutely important for Eb3 also. We had previously discussed this, in fy19 eb3 might pass eb2. This in fact would enable lot of porters filing their Aos in Eb3 itself.
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 17 Jan 2018
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction

Every quarter USCIS releases a pending inventory which tentatively shows the number of people who have filed adjustment of status. The last Pi is from October 17. For the next month they are processing people with PD before 8th December 2008. The Feb 09 date you are seeing is filing date which they are not accepting at this point in time. You have about 5k people before you in Eb2 waiting for GC.

Every year India is allotted 2804 GC visas in Eb2. This number can increase only if
1. We get vertical spill over from Eb1
2. Horizontal so from Eb2-row

Last 3 years Eb2 got very little of that and the movement was slow. This year with the new admin effect it is possible to get some spill over.
2 week movement till April was predicted in the February bulletin.
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Posted in I-140 Forum on 16 Jan 2018
Topic: February Visa bulletin cancelled or what


Thanks. So I will have 2 applications with same date but wont get it in next 10-15 yrs...



Nope. 5 years Max. 10-15-70 are all propaganda by groups who want your money into theirs.
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 16 Jan 2018
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction


For EB2I, is 2 weeks/month movement a fair expectation for foreseeable future ?



2 weeks movement for EB2 FEB 2018 based on August PD looks realistic compared to October PD. The numbers here are kind off messy. With the current numbers 2 weeks is a good movement. We might get the same movement for March also.

We have to wait for Jan PD, if it throws up a new spin for EB2-I from April bulletin onwards.
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Posted in I-485 Forum on 16 Jan 2018
Topic: March 2018 VB Prediction

Lets toast for an authentic and proper GC in April 2018 for you.
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